Welcome to your Gameweek 38 final day briefing - thanks for being here. This is it. The last gameweek of the Premier League season, and there's still everything to play for in your mini leagues. The deadline hits at 1:30pm today, all ten fixtures kick off simultaneously at 3pm, and the decisions you make in the next few hours could be the difference between glory and heartbreak. Let's cut through the noise and get you set.

⚡ Rapid-Fire GW37 Recap

Virgil

Senesi

Before we get into the GW38 moves, here's what happened last gameweek that's shaping the transfer landscape today.

PlayerGW37 PtsGoalsAssistsVerdict
Enzo (Chelsea)1311🔥 In-form
Virgil (Liverpool)1420💪 Monster GW
Haaland (Man City)910✅ Reliable
Semenyo (Bournemouth)100❌ Tank empty
Gyökeres (Arsenal) - 00⚠️ 17 mins only

✅ Top 3 Transfers IN for GW38

1. Enzo Fernández (Chelsea) - £6.5m | 12% Ownership

Verdict: Essential

This is the standout transfer of the final gameweek. Enzo delivered 13 points in GW37 - a goal, an assist, and 3 bonus points in Chelsea's 2-1 win over Spurs. He now has 10 goals and 5 assists for the season, totalling 156 points overall, and he's flying into 156,000 transfers this gameweek alone.

  • Price: £6.5m

  • Ownership: 12% - low enough to be a differential, high enough to validate

  • GW37: 13 points (1G, 1A, 3 bonus)

  • Season totals: 10 goals, 5 assists, 156 total points

  • GW38 fixture: Chelsea away at Sunderland - Fixture Difficulty Rating: 3

  • Expected Points (xP): 7.7 for GW38

  • Form rating: 7.7

Chelsea travel to Sunderland in the final gameweek - a fixture difficulty of just 3 - and will want to end the season on a high. Enzo is the engine of this Chelsea side right now, and with his form, his fixture, and his set-piece involvement, this is as close to a must-have as you'll find at 12% ownership. If you haven't got him already, today is your last chance.

2. Virgil van Dijk (Liverpool) - £6.1m | 31.2% Ownership

Verdict: Good

What a GW37 from the Liverpool captain. Two goals from set pieces against Aston Villa in a 4-2 thriller - 14 points and a reminder of exactly why defenders with set-piece threat are so valuable in FPL.

  • Price: £6.1m

  • Ownership: 31.2%

  • GW37: 14 points (2 goals)

  • Season totals: 6 goals, 1 assist, 173 total points

  • GW38 fixture: Liverpool home vs Brentford - Fixture Difficulty Rating: 3 at home

  • Expected Points (xP): 5.7 for GW38

  • Set-piece threat: Active every single week

Yes, Brentford away carry a fixture difficulty rating of 4, which makes this slightly trickier than it looks on paper - but Liverpool at home is still a strong clean sheet candidate, and Virgil's attacking threat from corners and free kicks gives him a double route to points. At £6.1m with 31.2% ownership, he's well-owned for a reason.

3. Erling Haaland (Man City) - £14.7m | 64.1% Ownership

Verdict: Good - Hold your nerve

92,000 transfers out this week, but don't panic. Haaland scored in GW37 as Bournemouth held Man City to a 1-1 draw - 9 points with 3 bonus. He has 27 goals this season and remains the highest-scoring player in FPL with 239 total points.

  • Price: £14.7m

  • Ownership: 64.1%

  • GW37: 9 points (1 goal, 3 bonus)

  • Season totals: 27 goals, 8 assists, 239 total points

  • GW38 fixture: Man City home vs Aston Villa - Fixture Difficulty Rating: 5 for Villa away

  • Expected Points (xP): 7.3 for GW38

  • Form: Consistent returns all season

Man City host Aston Villa in the final gameweek. With the title potentially on the line, Haaland will be central to everything City do going forward. If you've held him this far through the season, bailing now would be a mistake. The xP of 7.3 reflects the genuine threat he poses at the Etihad. Stay put.

Want to see how Haaland's expected points compare to the rest of the GW38 field? View expected points projections to plan your final gameweek squad.

❌ Top 3 Transfers OUT for GW38

1. Semenyo (Bournemouth) - £8.0m | 46.4% Ownership

Verdict: Sell

Just one point in GW37, only 55 minutes on the pitch, and 137,000 managers already heading for the exit. Semenyo was brilliant for long stretches of this season but the end-of-season rot has clearly set in.

  • Price: £8.0m

  • Ownership: 46.4%

  • GW37: 1 point (55 minutes played)

  • GW38 xP: 4.3 - lowest of the big ownership players

  • Transfers out: 137,000+ this week

At 46.4% ownership with an xP of just 4.3 for the final gameweek, he is actively dragging you backwards relative to the field. Sell, and use the funds on a player who's actually firing.

2. Gyökeres (Arsenal) - £9.1m | 16.9% Ownership

Verdict: Sell if you need the funds

Only 17 minutes off the bench against Burnley as Arsenal ground out a 1-0 win in GW37. Almost 200,000 managers are already out ahead of the final day. His GW38 xP of 6.0 sounds decent, but if he's not starting, that number is completely meaningless.

  • Price: £9.1m

  • Ownership: 16.9%

  • GW37: 17 minutes played

  • GW38 fixture: Crystal Palace away - Fixture Difficulty Rating: 4

  • GW38 xP: 6.0 (irrelevant if he doesn't start)

  • Transfers out: ~200,000 this week

The lack of starts is the defining concern here. At £9.1m, you could find far better value elsewhere on the final day. View predicted lineups before the 1:30pm deadline - if he's not in the XI, the decision makes itself.

3. Guéhi (Man City) - £5.1m | 32.6% Ownership

Verdict: Hold if short on transfers, Sell for flexibility

Guéhi returned just 2 points in GW37 despite playing 90 minutes, and Man City's final fixture against Aston Villa carries a difficulty of 5 - the highest clean sheet difficulty of the weekend. He does have 14 clean sheets this season, so the underlying numbers are respectable, but 50,000 transfers out suggest managers are already moving on.

  • Price: £5.1m

  • Ownership: 32.6%

  • GW37: 2 points (90 minutes, no clean sheet)

  • Season: 14 clean sheets

  • GW38 fixture: Man City vs Aston Villa - Difficulty 5 for clean sheet prospects

  • Transfers out: ~50,000 this week

If you've already used your free transfer getting Enzo in, hold Guéhi and accept the risk. If you have a spare move, there are better-placed defenders for GW38.

🎯 Differentials Under 10% - Win Your Mini League Today

These are the picks that could separate you from everyone else in your mini league on the final day. Low ownership, strong fixtures, and genuine upside. Browse more differentials on our full database.

🔵 Hinshelwood (Brighton) - £5.2m | 1.6% Ownership

The standout differential of the final gameweek. Brighton host Man Utd at home - a fixture difficulty of just 3 for Brighton - and Hinshelwood has been quietly excellent all season.

  • Price: £5.2m - outstanding budget value

  • Ownership: 1.6% - virtually nobody owns him

  • GW37: 81 minutes played, clean sheet

  • Season: 4 goals, 5 assists, 7 clean sheets

  • GW38 fixture: Brighton home vs Man Utd - FDR 3

  • GW38 xP: 6.0

  • Transfers in: 18,000 this week

At £5.2m with 1.6% ownership, Hinshelwood gives you clean sheet potential, goal threat, and assist potential - all from a player almost nobody has. If he delivers on the final day, you'll be flying up mini league tables. This is the punchy differential of the week.

🔵 Doku (Man City) - £6.5m | 6.6% Ownership

Joint highest expected points in the entire GW38 data at 7.7 xP. Doku only returned 2 points in GW37 (75 minutes played) but the underlying attacking threat is always there - and if Man City are pushing for the title, this could be his moment.

  • Price: £6.5m

  • Ownership: 6.6%

  • GW37: 2 points (75 minutes played)

  • Season: 5 goals, 8 assists

  • GW38 fixture: Man City home vs Aston Villa

  • GW38 xP: 7.7 - joint highest this week

The 7.7 xP is the headline here. If City turn up in full force for a potential title-deciding match, Doku's pace and directness make him one of the most dangerous attacking players on the pitch. At 6.6% ownership, a big return from him would be a genuine mini league winner.

🟡 Darlow (Leeds) - £4.0m | 6.9% Ownership

The budget goalkeeper who keeps delivering. Darlow bagged 11 points in GW37 with a clean sheet and 3 bonus points. Leeds travel to West Ham in GW38 - West Ham at home carrying a fixture difficulty of just 2 for Leeds.

  • Price: £4.0m - the cheapest route to clean sheet points

  • Ownership: 6.9%

  • GW37: 11 points (clean sheet, 3 bonus)

  • Season: 5 clean sheets, 58 saves

  • GW38 fixture: Leeds away at West Ham - FDR 2 (excellent)

If you need a budget second goalkeeper with real upside for the final day, Darlow at £4.0m is the answer. Five clean sheets and 58 saves this season tells you he's been doing his job all year - and a difficulty-2 fixture on the last day gives him a strong chance of delivering again.

🏆 Captaincy Recommendation

Our captain pick for Gameweek 38:

Enzo Fernández is our captain recommendation for GW38. The form, the fixture, the confidence - it all points to Chelsea's midfielder delivering big on the final day away at Sunderland. 10 goals, 5 assists, 13 points last week, and a fixture difficulty of just 3. This is the value captain of the week.

Who Got The Points

Premium alternative: Haaland at home to Aston Villa has the big-game feel. If you're already captaining him this season, sticking with the 27-goal machine in a potential title-decider at the Etihad is a perfectly reasonable call. But for those looking to chase the field, Enzo at 12% ownership is the move.

📋 GW38 Key Stats at a Glance

PlayerPriceOwn%xPFDRFixture
Enzo£6.5m12%7.73vs Sunderland (A)
Doku£6.5m6.6%7.7 - vs Aston Villa (H)
Haaland£14.7m64.1%7.3 - vs Aston Villa (H)
Virgil£6.1m31.2%5.73vs Brentford (H)
Hinshelwood£5.2m1.6%6.03vs Man Utd (H)
Darlow£4.0m6.9% - 2at West Ham (A)

⏰ Final Day Checklist

  • Deadline is 1:30pm today - don't sleep on it

  • All 10 GW38 fixtures kick off simultaneously at 3pm

  • Check predicted lineups before deadline - especially for Gyökeres

  • Captain Enzo for value, Haaland if you want the premium option

  • Consider Hinshelwood or Doku as differential punts

  • Sell Semenyo if you haven't already - 4.3 xP is too low

  • Free transfers are gold today - use them wisely

🎓 Want an Edge All Season?

If you want to take your FPL game to the next level, Fantasy Football Hub - now 30% off gives you the data-driven insights, expert tips, and tools to consistently outperform your mini leagues.

And for more free tools, analysis, and weekly newsletters just like this one, subscribe at Who Got The Points?

That's your GW38 final day briefing. Good luck out there, managers - may the points be with you. 🏆

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