Welcome back to the Who Got The Points newsletter! It's the final gameweek of the season and there's no room for error. With every team kicking off simultaneously on Sunday 25th May, preparation is everything. Below you'll find the complete breakdown from the podcast - transfers in, transfers out, differentials, and the all-important captaincy pick. Let's make sure you finish the season strong.
⚠️ Deadline Reminder: All GW38 fixtures kick off at the same time on Sunday 25th May. The deadline is Sunday 25th May at 1:30pm. With every game going simultaneously, there is absolutely no margin for last-minute surprises. Get your squad locked in well ahead of time.
📰 Rapid-Fire News Bulletin
Watkins
Szoboszlai
Before the transfers, here's the key team news you need across the clubs involved in GW38:
Crystal Palace have injury concerns heading into the final gameweek. If you own any Palace assets, watch team news closely before the deadline.
Stach is reportedly injured, which is bad news for Brighton owners. Their manager has also hinted at rotation for the final day at the Amex - selection surprises are possible.
Casemiro started for Man Utd against Forest in GW37 in what was reportedly something of a farewell appearance. Bruno Fernandes was brilliant once again, picking up two assists in a 3-2 win.
Gibbs-White returned for Forest and Anderson impressed - Forest have attacking options heading into the Nott'm Forest vs Bournemouth finale.
Newcastle's Barnes and Wilson both started their GW37 fixture, with Burn coming off the bench - worth noting ahead of Fulham vs Newcastle in GW38.
✅ Top 3 Transfers IN for GW38
1. Ollie Watkins (Aston Villa) - £8.7m | 13.4% Owned
Verdict: Essential ✅
Watkins was absolutely sensational in GW37 against Liverpool - two goals, one assist, three bonus points, and 15 points in total. That is elite-level output on one of the biggest stages. He has 14 goals and 4 assists this season, 154 total points, and a form score of 8.6. His expected points for GW38 sit at 8.1, and he faces Man City at home. Yes, the fixture looks tough on paper, but on the final day of the season when tired legs are everywhere and rotation is rife, a striker in this kind of form is almost impossible to ignore. Back the form.
Price: £8.7m
Ownership: 13.4%
GW37 Points: 15 (2 goals, 1 assist, 3 bonus)
Season Total: 154 points | 14 goals | 4 assists
GW38 xP: 8.1
GW38 Fixture: Aston Villa vs Man City (H)
Form Score: 8.6
📊 See how Watkins ranks in our expected points projections ahead of the final gameweek.
2. Dominic Calvert-Lewin (Leeds) - £5.8m | 13.3% Owned
Verdict: Good ✅
Calvert-Lewin scored and kept a clean sheet in GW37 for Leeds against Brighton, banking 7 points. He has racked up 14 goals this season and represents outstanding value at £5.8m. Leeds travel to West Ham in GW38, a fixture with a difficulty rating of just two - a genuinely favourable match-up. With 19,168 transfers in this gameweek alone, the FPL community is clearly taking notice. A great budget striker option for those looking to free up funds.
Price: £5.8m
Ownership: 13.3%
GW37 Points: 7 (1 goal, clean sheet)
Season Total: 140 points | 14 goals | 2 assists
GW38 Fixture: West Ham vs Leeds (A) - Fixture Difficulty: 2
Transfers In This GW: 19,168
3. David Raya (Arsenal) - £6.2m | 36.4% Owned
Verdict: Essential ✅
Arsenal still have their GW37 fixture to play against Burnley, so Raya comes into GW38 fresh. He has 18 clean sheets this season, 60 saves, and 6.2 expected points for GW38 against Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park - a fixture made even more appealing given Palace's injury concerns. He has been the most reliable goalkeeper in the game this season. With 12,432 transfers in this week, the market agrees. If you need a keeper upgrade, look no further.
Price: £6.2m
Ownership: 36.4%
Season: 18 clean sheets | 60 saves
GW38 xP: 6.2
GW38 Fixture: Crystal Palace vs Arsenal (A)
Transfers In This GW: 12,432
❌ Top 3 Transfers OUT for GW38
1. Welbeck (Brighton) - £6.4m | 9.1% Owned
Verdict: Sell ❌
Welbeck only lasted 64 minutes in GW37 and blanked. Brighton face Man Utd in GW38, and with Stach potentially injured, the Brighton attacking setup is uncertain. His form is dropping, his price is drifting, and with 11,374 transfers out this week, managers are already acting. With one gameweek left, you want certainty - and Welbeck does not provide it.
Price: £6.4m
Ownership: 9.1%
GW37: 64 minutes, blanked
GW38 Fixture: Brighton vs Man Utd (H)
Transfers Out This GW: 11,374
Concern: Stach injury, rotation risk, uncertain setup
2. Igor Jesus (Brighton) - £5.9m | 2.4% Owned
Verdict: Sell ❌
Igor Jesus played 83 minutes against Man Utd in GW37 but returned just two points, blanking completely. He has only six goals and six assists all season. Forest host Bournemouth in the final gameweek, which is a neutral fixture on paper. His form score of 5.8 sounds passable, but for a forward in the last gameweek of the season, you need more firepower. Cut your losses.
Price: £5.9m
Ownership: 2.4%
GW37: 83 minutes, 2 points (blank)
Season: 6 goals, 6 assists
GW38 Fixture: Nott'm Forest vs Bournemouth (H) - neutral on paper
Form Score: 5.8
3. Beto (Everton) - £5.1m | 3.4% Owned
Verdict: Sell ❌
Everton were beaten 1-3 by Sunderland in GW37, with Beto playing 72 minutes and returning nothing. He now faces Spurs away in GW38. With flat form, a falling price, and a tricky away fixture to finish, there is no compelling reason to hold. Move the money somewhere it can work harder.
Price: £5.1m
Ownership: 3.4%
GW37: 72 minutes, blanked (Everton lost 1-3 to Sunderland)
GW38 Fixture: Spurs vs Everton (A)
Concern: Poor form, difficult fixture, price falling
🎯 Differential Picks for GW38
All under 10% ownership - these are the names that could separate you in your mini leagues on the final day of the season. If you're chasing down rivals, one of these could be the difference.
Browse all low-ownership options on our differential players tool to identify more GW38 mini-league movers.
Sadio Mané (Wolves) - £4.2m | 1.3% Owned
Mané scored and claimed three bonus points in GW37 against Fulham, finishing with 11 points. Wolves host Burnley in GW38 - a very winnable fixture. At just £4.2m, he's the perfect budget enabler that frees up funds for a premium pick elsewhere. Only 1.3% ownership means a haul here is genuinely season-defining in your mini league.
Price: £4.2m
Ownership: 1.3%
GW37 Points: 11 (1 goal, 3 bonus)
Season: 3 goals, 2 assists - 72 total points
GW38 Fixture: Wolves vs Burnley (H)
Kroupi Junior (Bournemouth) - £4.6m | 6.3% Owned
Bournemouth have yet to play their GW37 fixture, meaning Kroupi Junior comes into the final gameweek fresh. He travels to Nott'm Forest and has 12 goals this season, plus is a constant penalty and set-piece threat. At 6.3% ownership, a big haul here could genuinely define your mini-league finish. One to seriously consider if you have the budget.
Price: £4.6m
Ownership: 6.3%
Season: 12 goals
GW38 Fixture: Nott'm Forest vs Bournemouth (A)
Note: Bournemouth yet to play GW37 - fresh legs going into the finale
Threat: Penalty taker, set-piece danger
Flemming (Burnley) - £5.3m | 0.4% Owned
The ultimate differential. Flemming has 10 goals this season for Burnley, who face Wolves in GW38. This is end-of-season chaos territory, and Flemming is exactly the kind of player who can run riot in a dead-rubber nothing game. At just 0.4% ownership, any points return is pure rank gold. Maximum upside, ultra-low ownership.
Price: £5.3m
Ownership: 0.4%
Season: 10 goals
GW38 Fixture: Wolves vs Burnley (A)
Risk/Reward: Ultra-high differential - any haul is a rank mover
🏆 Captaincy Pick: Ollie Watkins
Fifteen points in GW37, 8.1 expected points for GW38, and the kind of form that demands the armband on the final day of the season.
Watkins is the captain recommendation for GW38. The fixture against Man City is the only concern, but backing form over fixture in the final gameweek is almost always the right call. Two goals, one assist, 15 points, and a form score of 8.6 - he is simply the hottest striker in the game right now. Give him the armband and trust the numbers.
📋 GW38 Key Player Summary
| Player | Team | Price | Own% | GW37 Pts | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watkins | Aston Villa | £8.7m | 13.4% | 15 | Essential IN ✅ |
| Calvert-Lewin | Leeds | £5.8m | 13.3% | 7 | Good IN ✅ |
| Raya | Arsenal | £6.2m | 36.4% | - | Essential IN ✅ |
| Welbeck | Brighton | £6.4m | 9.1% | - | Sell ❌ |
| Igor Jesus | Brighton | £5.9m | 2.4% | 2 | Sell ❌ |
| Beto | Everton | £5.1m | 3.4% | - | Sell ❌ |
| Mané | Wolves | £4.2m | 1.3% | 11 | Differential 🎯 |
| Kroupi Junior | Bournemouth | £4.6m | 6.3% | - | Differential 🎯 |
| Flemming | Burnley | £5.3m | 0.4% | - | Differential 🎯 |
⚡ Final GW38 Tips
All GW38 fixtures kick off simultaneously - set your squad before 1:30pm on Sunday 25th May, no exceptions.
Back form over fixture on the final day - tired legs, rotation and nothing-to-play-for teams make form the most reliable guide.
Watkins is your captain - 8.1 xP and the hottest striker in the game heading into the finale.
Crystal Palace injury news is crucial - check for updates before the deadline if you hold any Palace assets.
Brighton rotation is a real risk - their manager has flagged selection surprises for the final day at the Amex.
If you're chasing mini-league rivals, a differential like Mané or Kroupi Junior could be the difference between winning and losing.
Want to take your FPL to the next level? Join Fantasy Football Hub - 30% Off and get expert analysis, team reveals, and community insight to help you dominate your mini leagues.
Thanks for reading - good luck in the final gameweek! Subscribe at whogotthepoints.com for the final verdict of the season. Let's finish strong. 💪