Welcome back, and thanks for subscribing to Who Got The Points! Gameweek 30 is almost here and there is plenty to unpack - from João Pedro's stunning hat-trick heroics to Arsenal injury doubts and a Bournemouth defensive unit that is quietly becoming one of the best in the league. The deadline is Saturday the 14th of March at 1:30pm, so let's get straight into it.
⚡ Rapid-Fire News Headlines
João Pedro
Senesi
Arsenal doubts: Gabriel and Declan Rice are both doubts for GW30. Mikel Arteta confirmed their absences after the FA Cup tie. Arsenal host Everton - keep a very close eye on team news before the 1:30pm Saturday deadline.
Arsenal FA Cup: The Gunners did progress in the FA Cup with a second-string side, which is positive for the club but raises rotation risks.
Haaland absence: Erling Haaland was absent for Man City in midweek, though it was described as precautionary. O'Reilly is reportedly back in contention for GW30.
Man City blank GW31: City drew 2-1 with Nott'm Forest in GW29, furthering the likelihood of a blank Gameweek 31 for all City assets. Factor this into your transfer planning NOW.
Liverpool rotation warning: Arne Slot has openly discussed rotation ahead of a tricky home fixture against Spurs in GW30. Be wary of Liverpool assets if the rotation continues.
✅ Transfers In
1. João Pedro - Chelsea | £7.7m | 47.2% ownership
The standout performer of Gameweek 29. João Pedro delivered a hat-trick and an assist against Aston Villa to rack up a massive 19 points in a single gameweek. His season numbers are exceptional - 14 goals and 9 assists, with a form rating of 9.2 and 160 total points on the season.
For Gameweek 30, Chelsea host Newcastle at home under Liam Rosenior, and Pedro has 9.7 expected points for that fixture. At under half the price of the premium forwards and with this kind of ceiling, this is an Essential buy if you don't already own him.
GW29 points: 19 (hat-trick + assist)
Season: 14 goals, 9 assists, 160 total points
Form rating: 9.2
GW30 xP: 9.7 vs Newcastle (H)
Ownership: 47.2%
Price: £7.7m
At under half the price of premium forwards and with that kind of ceiling, João Pedro is an Essential buy for Gameweek 30.
2. Senesi - Bournemouth | £5.0m | 17.3% ownership
Senesi was recommended as a buy recently and delivered the goods in GW29 - 11 points including a clean sheet and 3 bonus points against Brentford. With 8 clean sheets this season, 4 assists, and 126 total points, he is quietly one of the most consistent budget defenders in the game.
For GW30, Bournemouth travel to struggling Burnley. Senesi has 5.3 expected points for that fixture. At just £5.0m, if you don't have him yet, now is absolutely the time to make that move.
GW29 points: 11 (clean sheet + 3 bonus)
Season: 8 clean sheets, 4 assists, 126 total points
GW30 xP: 5.3 vs Burnley (A)
Ownership: 17.3%
Price: £5.0m
Verdict: GOOD - Buy now
3. Hill - Bournemouth | £4.2m | 7.3% ownership
Another Bournemouth defender flying under the radar. Hill scored 8 points in GW29 with a clean sheet against Brentford. His form sits at 6.4, he has 5 clean sheets this season, 3 assists, and 75 total points.
With 6.9 expected points for GW30 at Burnley and a price tag of just £4.2m - with 48,000 managers transferring him in this week - Hill is an outstanding budget enabler. Pair him with Senesi for double Bournemouth defensive coverage and free up serious funds elsewhere in your squad.
GW29 points: 8 (clean sheet)
Season: 5 clean sheets, 3 assists, 75 total points
Form rating: 6.4
GW30 xP: 6.9 vs Burnley (A)
Ownership: 7.3%
Price: £4.2m - outstanding budget enabler
Verdict: GOOD - Pair with Senesi for double Bournemouth coverage
Bournemouth's defensive stats this season make them a compelling target for multiple slots in your squad. Check out the full defensive stats and clean sheet data to see just how strong this unit has become.
❌ Transfers Out
1. Rogers - Aston Villa | £7.5m | 26.3% ownership
Villa were hammered 4-1 by Chelsea in GW29 and Rogers returned just 1 point. His form has dropped to 3.4 and his GW30 expected points against Man Utd away stand at a worrying 2.9. The numbers don't lie - 185,000 transfers out this week alone tells its own story.
GW29 points: 1
Form rating: 3.4
GW30 xP: 2.9 vs Man Utd (A)
Transfers out this week: 185,000
Verdict: SELL - Form has fallen off a cliff and fixtures don't improve
2. Virgil van Dijk - Liverpool | £6.2m | 32.5% ownership
Van Dijk returned just 1 point in GW29 as Liverpool lost 2-1 to Wolves - no clean sheet, no goal contributions. Liverpool host Spurs in GW30, and the expected points of 7.7 might look appealing, but with Arne Slot openly discussing rotation and Liverpool's recent defensive wobble, that number may be flattering.
GW29 points: 1
GW30 xP: 7.7 vs Spurs (H) - but rotation risk is real
Transfers out this week: 28,000
Verdict: HOLD for now - but a swap to the Bournemouth backline is a reasonable move if you want defensive security
3. O'Reilly - Man City | £5.1m | 9.4% ownership
O'Reilly didn't feature in GW29 as Man City drew with Nott'm Forest, and nearly 48,000 managers transferred him out this week. His form remains impressive at 7.6, with 11 clean sheets this season, 4 goals and 3 assists. Reports suggest he returns for GW30 against West Ham at home, where he has 8.1 expected points.
However - and this is crucial - the Man City blank in Gameweek 31 is now highly likely following their FA Cup progression. Hold for GW30's return, but plan your exit before GW31.
GW29 points: Did not feature
Form rating: 7.6
Season: 11 clean sheets, 4 goals, 3 assists
GW30 xP: 8.1 vs West Ham (H) - if he starts
Transfers out this week: ~48,000
Verdict: HOLD for GW30, but EXIT before GW31 blank
🔍 Differentials (All Under 10% Ownership)
Looking for an edge in your mini-league? Browse our differential players tool to find the hidden gems your rivals won't have.
Truffert - Bournemouth | £4.6m | 2.4% ownership
The cheapest route into one of the best defensive units in the league. Truffert scored 8 points in GW29 with a clean sheet and 2 bonus points. He has 8 clean sheets this season and 25,000 managers transferred him in this week. Bournemouth travel to struggling Burnley in GW30. At just £4.6m and 2.4% ownership, this is an absolute gem of a differential.
GW29 points: 8 (clean sheet + 2 bonus)
Season: 8 clean sheets, 2 assists, 107 total points
Ownership: 2.4%
Price: £4.6m
Verdict: Outstanding differential - snap him up
Aït-Nouri - Man City | £5.7m | 4.5% ownership
Aït-Nouri started and played 76 minutes in GW29, grabbing an assist. He has 3 clean sheets and 2 assists this season, with 6.1 expected points for GW30 against West Ham at home. With Man City favourites despite the draw with Forest, Aït-Nouri offers genuine attacking upside from left back at low ownership. Just remember - plan for his exit before the GW31 blank.
GW29: Started, 76 mins, 1 assist
Season: 3 clean sheets, 2 assists
GW30 xP: 6.1 vs West Ham (H)
Ownership: 4.5%
Price: £5.7m
Note: Plan exit before GW31 blank
Petrović - Bournemouth GK | £4.5m | 4.9% ownership
If you're looking to upgrade your budget goalkeeper, Petrović is a compelling option. He scored 6 points in GW29 with a clean sheet and has 8 clean sheets and an impressive 88 saves this season. His GW30 expected points stand at 5.3 against Burnley. With Bournemouth's current form, this is a strong budget GK option.
GW29 points: 6 (clean sheet)
Season: 8 clean sheets, 88 saves
GW30 xP: 5.3 vs Burnley (A)
Ownership: 4.9%
Price: £4.5m
Verdict: Strong budget goalkeeper pick
🏆 Captaincy Pick: João Pedro
There is only one choice for the GW30 armband. João Pedro just scored a hat-trick, has 9.7 expected points against Newcastle at home on Saturday the 14th of March, and is the highest ceiling asset in the game right now. He is your captain - no debate needed.
Hat-trick. 19 points. 9.7 expected points for GW30. João Pedro is your captain - end of discussion.
📋 Key GW30 Takeaways
João Pedro is an Essential transfer in AND your GW30 captain - 19 points GW29, 9.7 xP for GW30
The Bournemouth defensive trio of Senesi, Hill, and Truffert offer incredible value across all price ranges
Gabriel and Declan Rice are injury doubts for Arsenal - monitor team news carefully before the deadline
Arne Slot's rotation comments are a serious red flag for Liverpool defensive assets heading into Spurs (H)
The Man City GW31 blank is now highly likely - plan your City asset exits AFTER GW30, not before
O'Reilly is worth holding for GW30 (8.1 xP vs West Ham) if he features, but sell before GW31
Rogers is a clear sell - form of 3.4, 2.9 xP, and 185k managers already out the door
Want to stay ahead of price changes as the GW30 deadline approaches? Keep an eye on the live price change tracker to make sure you buy in before any rises hit.
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Thanks for reading - good luck in Gameweek 30! Subscribe at whogotthepoints.com and we'll see you tomorrow for more FPL analysis.