Welcome back to Who Got The Points! Thanks for subscribing to your daily Fantasy Premier League briefing. Gameweek 12 delivered some major talking points that will shape your GW13 strategy. With the Saturday deadline approaching, let's break down the essential transfers, differential picks, and captain choices you need to navigate this crucial gameweek.
The Big Stories from Gameweek 12
Welbeck
Rogers
Erling Haaland's Goal Drought: The Manchester City striker has now blanked in six consecutive league and cup matches, including GW12 against Newcastle. At his premium price point, this extended drought is becoming a genuine concern for the 30%+ of managers who own him.
Liverpool's Shock Defeat: Nottingham Forest stunned Liverpool with a 3-0 victory. More concerning for FPL managers was Dominik Szoboszlai being deployed at right-back, severely limiting his attacking potential. This tactical shift needs monitoring.
Crystal Palace Concerns: Jean-Philippe Mateta was substituted early at just 59 minutes, managing only one point. With 30% ownership, this is a major issue. Additionally, Daniel Muñoz is on four yellow cards—one booking away from suspension.
Arsenal Defensive Reshuffle: The Gunners played the North London Derby without Gabriel, with Jurrien Timber and Riccardo Calafiori stepping in. They conceded but avoided defensive collapse.
Key Injuries & Suspensions: Cristian Romero picked up a ban after his red card for Tottenham. Chris Richards left the Wolves game early, while Reece James was withdrawn at half-time for Chelsea. Moises Caicedo was surprisingly benched.
Top 3 Transfers IN for Gameweek 13
1. Bryan Mbeumo (£8.6m) - ESSENTIAL
Ownership: 36.4% | Transfers In: Nearly 60,000
Season Stats: 60 total points, 5 goals, 1 assist
Form: 6.0 | GW13 Expected Points: 6.0
Mbeumo is the most transferred-in player this week for good reason. With Brentford yet to play their GW12 fixture, he'll be fresh for GW13. Two clean sheets and consistent attacking returns make him reliable premium midfield value at £8.6m.
VERDICT: Essential. He delivers consistently and is underpriced for his output. If you don't own him, make this transfer a priority.
2. Declan Rice (£6.9m) - ESSENTIAL
Ownership: 22% | Transfers In: Over 47,000
Season Stats: 71 total points, 2 goals, 5 assists, 6 clean sheets
GW12 Performance: Played full 90 minutes, 1 assist, 6 points
GW13 Expected Points: 8.0 (highest among midfielders at his price)
Rice is severely underpriced for his output. At £6.9m, he offers both attacking and defensive returns, with Arsenal's six clean sheets demonstrating their defensive stability. With Arsenal's fixtures improving, he's a set-and-forget midfielder.
VERDICT: Essential. Peak value at this price point. His expected points are elite for the cost.
3. Callum Wilson (£5.8m) - DIFFERENTIAL OPTION
Ownership: Just 0.5% | Transfers In: Over 9,000
GW12 Performance: Started, played 51 minutes, scored twice, 3 bonus points, 12-point haul
Season Stats: 4 goals in limited game time
GW13 Expected Points: 6.5
Wilson offers explosive upside at under £6m. His two-goal haul against Wolves demonstrates his clinical finishing when given opportunities.
VERDICT: Good option if you need forward depth with differential potential, but minutes remain a rotation risk. Only bring him in if you can afford the benching risk.
Top 3 Transfers OUT for Gameweek 13
1. Jean-Philippe Mateta (£8.1m) - SELL
Ownership: 30% | Transfers Out: Nearly 48,000
GW12 Performance: 1 point, substituted at just 59 minutes
Form: 3.5 | GW13 Expected Points: 3.5
Despite having 6 goals this season, Mateta's recent returns have dried up. His early substitution suggests either tactical changes or fitness concerns. At £8.1m, that's expensive for a forward averaging 4.2 points per game who's not completing full matches.
VERDICT: Sell. His price is falling, minutes are uncertain, and better options exist at lower prices. Move him on before you lose more value.
2. Bukayo Saka (£10.1m) - HOLD FOR NOW
Ownership: 17.9% | Transfer Activity: Almost equal ins and outs
GW12 Performance: 4 points, played 90 minutes without attacking returns
Season Stats: 3 goals, 5 clean sheets
Form: 5.5 | GW13 Expected Points: 6.5
Three goals this season is underwhelming for a £10.1m midfielder. Five clean sheets help, but at that price, you need goals and assists. Owners are clearly losing patience.
VERDICT: Hold for now. Arsenal's fixtures are decent, but if he blanks again, consider downgrading to fund premium attackers like Mbeumo or Rice.
3. Micky van de Ven (£4.8m) - HOLD
Ownership: 33.7%
GW12 Performance: 0 points, played 90 minutes without returns as Spurs failed to keep a clean sheet
Season Stats: 4 clean sheets, 3 goals
GW13 Expected Points: 6.5
Four clean sheets plus three goals make him attractive, but Tottenham's defensive fragility is concerning. Can you trust Spurs' backline?
VERDICT: Hold. His price and attacking threat justify keeping, but if you need funds elsewhere, he's an easy downgrade to a £4.0-4.5m defender.
Differential Picks Under 10% Ownership
Looking to gain an edge in your mini-leagues? These differential options could provide the points boost you need:
Danny Welbeck (£6.6m) - 9.9% Owned
GW12: 8 points (played 90 minutes, 1 goal, 2 bonus)
Season: 7 goals | GW13 xP: 5.5
The Brighton forward is clinical when fit. At £6.6m, he's cheaper than premium forwards but delivers similar output. Brighton's fixtures are favorable.
Lukas Nmecha (£5.0m) - 0.6% Owned
GW12: 8 points (played 70 minutes, 1 goal, 2 bonus)
Season: 3 goals | GW13 xP: 5.2
At just £5.0m, Nmecha is the ultimate enabler who can actually return points. Three goals in limited starts shows his efficiency.
Ivan Toney (£6.5m) - 15.2% Owned
Total Points: 64 | Season: 9 goals from 12 appearances
GW12: 4 points (played 90 minutes, 1 goal) | GW13 xP: 6.0
Nine goals from twelve appearances is elite. Still in differential territory despite strong ownership.
Captaincy Strategy for Gameweek 13
Safe Pick: Bryan Mbeumo
With his consistent returns and favorable fixture, Mbeumo is the safe captain choice for GW13. He's been delivering week after week and shows no signs of slowing down.
Differential Pick: Declan Rice
With 8.0 expected points against a favorable opponent, Rice offers serious differential captain potential. If you want to gain ground in your mini-leagues, this could be the bold move that pays off.
Key Takeaway: The Haaland Question
Monitor Erling Haaland closely this week. Six blanks is genuinely concerning, but class is permanent. If you don't own him and he returns in Gameweek 13, his price will rocket and his ownership will surge. Consider bringing him back if Manchester City's attack clicks again. Don't be the manager who misses the boat when he returns to form.
Quick Reference: GW13 Action Items
Priority Transfer IN: Bryan Mbeumo (£8.6m) - Essential midfielder with consistent returns
Second Priority: Declan Rice (£6.9m) - Peak value set-and-forget midfielder
Differential Option: Callum Wilson (£5.8m) - If you can handle rotation risk
Priority Transfer OUT: Jean-Philippe Mateta (£8.1m) - Minutes uncertain, better options available
Captain Pick: Bryan Mbeumo (safe) or Declan Rice (differential)
Monitor: Erling Haaland's form - Consider bringing back if City's attack improves
Watch: Daniel Muñoz yellow card situation (one away from suspension)
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That's your complete GW13 briefing! Make those transfers count, trust your analysis on differentials, and remember: in Fantasy Premier League, it's not about who should get the points—it's about who actually got them.
Good luck this gameweek, and we'll see you in tomorrow's briefing!
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